New Census Report Addresses Registration and Voting in 2012
[Image courtesy of toybook]
On Wednesday evening, the U.S. Census Bureau released a new report with registration and turnout rates for the 2012 election. The source for the data is the Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey, which is delivered to 50,000 households nationwide in November of each federal election year.
Because the data is based on a survey of individuals (as opposed to tallied election returns), it can occasionally yield some surprising results; for example, this year’s survey suggests that Mississippi led the nation in turnout in 2012 – leading Minnesota’s Secretary of State to issue a press release defending his state’s #1 finish in 2012. Indeed, the Pew Research Center made the following observation as part of its “six take-aways” report on the release:
The gap between the voter turnout reported by the Census Bureau and the actual national vote tallied by election officials widened in 2012. According to the Census Bureau’s 2012 Current Population Survey November Supplement on Voting and Registration, an estimated 133 million U.S. citizens voted in 2012. That estimate is higher–by 4 million votes–than the national tally of 129 million votes cast for president. The gap in reported votes and the actual vote tally is the widest since 2000 (when the gap was 5.4 million votes) and marks the first widening of the gap since 1984. The Census Bureau’s November supplement to the CPS is the most comprehensive data source available for examining the demographic composition of the electorate in federal elections, but it relies on a post-election self-reporting by survey respondents. Because of what is sometimes described as “social desirability bias” some survey respondents may say they voted when in fact they did not. [emphasis in original](UPDATE: The Pew piece also includes a nice visual.)
Methodological questions aside, the long history of this report, along with the ability to match the data to other demographic information, makes it valuable as a research tool. Indeed, Pew’s election team highlighted the power of the Census data in its February 2012 report Election Administration by the Numbers:
Because questions about how people register, what modes they use to vote, and why non-voters do not participate have been asked regularly, the VRS can be used to study the effect of changing laws and regulations on voting behavior. The large number of people surveyed in each study makes it possible to estimate the frequency of relatively infrequent behaviors, such as non-voting for certain reasons, and to make estimates by state. Because of its integration with the CPS, the VRS comes with detailed demographic and economic information, making it possible to estimate the influence of personal characteristics on participation and registration. (p. 5)
The report comes with numerous detailed tables sorting the data by state, race, age and other demographic data – which will form the basis for election policy discussions for at least the next several years.
The link to the full report and supporting tables is here – check it out!